NBA best bets: Suns vs. Timberwolves Game 1 prediction, odds, pick for Saturday 4/20

Suns vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Odds

Saturday, April 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have taken lots of money since this series line opened and are now priced as the clear favorites at -135 at most books. The reason for the optimism surrounding the Suns is their decided advantage in shotmaking.

The Timberwolves do a great job of forcing teams into tough midrange shots, but the Suns have two of the best pull-up midrange jump shooters in the history of the sport in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant along with another lethal scorer in Bradley Beal.

The Timberwolves defense ranks fourth in Location Effective Field Goal Percentage, which is a barometer of the shot quality defenses allow to opposing offenses. The Suns offense ranks 28^th in the same metric but is seventh in Effective Field Goal Percentage (56.9 eFG%), as the Suns take tough shots but excel at making these looks.

This is the fundamental dynamic that underlines this series and why the Timberwolves may have drawn the worst possible matchup.

The Suns are 3-0 against the Timberwolves this season with all three victories coming by 10 or more points. Their offensive edge was on full display in the most recent matchup between these teams just six days ago as the Suns posted an elite Offensive Rating of 136.6. The Suns connected on 56% of their 3s and 52% of their midrange looks and as they rebounded 37.8% of their misses (93^rd percentile).

Beal led the way in scoring and Usage Rate with 36 points on 14/21 shooting from the field and 6/6 from the 3-point line. If the Suns continue to shoot the ball like this, the Timberwolves have absolutely no chance in this series regardless of how well their offense plays.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Fortunately, the Timberwolves have some things they can immediately rectify to give them a better chance in Game 1.

First, they must start with not turning the ball over on 27.4% of their possessions, which is double the league-average Turnover Rate (13.7%). That should be a fixable issue against this Sun defense that ranked just 24^th in Turnover Rate this season.

Second, the Timberwolves' halfcourt offense has plagued them all-season long. They ranked 12^th in Halfcourt Offensive Rating on the season but posted a poor 92.1 Halfcourt Offensive Rating on Sunday. On the other hand, the Suns were nearly 20 points better with a Halfcourt Offensive Rating of 111.3.

The Timberwolves also need to find ways to generate easier shots and avoid being stagnant while Anthony Edwards plays hero ball. This Suns defense finished the season ranked 13^th in Adjusted Defensive Rating, but there should be exploitable mismatches given how many minutes Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen play on defense.

Expect the Timberwolves to try to get Karl Anthony Towns going early and Naz Reid's minutes to gradually increase throughout this series in an effort to keep up with the Suns offense.

Suns vs. Timberwolves

Betting Pick & Prediction

I like Under 214 here as the Timberwolves should emphasize taking care of the ball in this matchup. This could lead to slightly slower play and fewer transition opportunities for the Suns.

These teams went over the total of 217.5, with 231, on Sunday, but both teams shot well as the Suns boasted a 63.6% Effective Field Goal Percentage while the Timberwolves weren't far behind at 58.8%.

Both teams also had elite offensive rebounding performances that helped generate extra looks in that matchup. The Wolves rank 10th in Defensive Rebound Rate while the Suns have done well on the defensive glass with Nurkic on the floor, so I expect an improved defensive rebounding effort from both teams here.

Take the under at 214 in this Game 1 matchup, and play the under down to 213.

Pick: Under 214 (-110 | Play to 213)